New York Builds Housing Like It's 1975. That Might Finally Change.

Dear Friend,

New York can launch a global brand overnight, but it still takes years to approve a new apartment building. Experts say we need 50,000 new homes per year to stabilize rents. Most years, we build half that.

The real drag isn’t ideology or land - it’s the approvals process. Built in the 1970s, when New York was shrinking, the system assumes housing is risky and rare. Add decades of procedural layering and the result is slow, uncertain, and expensive.

2026 could mark a turning point. New charter amendments, state legislation, and a new mayor all aim to speed up approvals. None are transformational alone, but together they reset the city’s posture toward building.

How the System Slows Itself Down

Most housing plans don’t die from neighborhood opposition. They die under the weight of time.

Three separate stages slow the process:

• Pre-certification delays projects 12–18 months before ULURP even starts.

  
  

• ULURP (1975) is the city’s formal public review, with input from Community Boards, Borough Presidents, and the City Council.

  
  

• CEQR (1977) adds environmental review, often redundant and overly broad.

Developers spend years navigating a maze of soft costs, carrying costs, and holding risks. For small and mid-sized projects - especially the type needed to add affordable rental units - the math breaks down before a shovel hits the ground.

What Voters Just Approved: The 2025 City Charter Reforms

The biggest reforms came from the November 2025 election, where voters approved three targeted changes:

Question 2: Fast-Track Affordable Housing

Shrinks administrative purgatory by setting hard deadlines for:

• City-financed affordable housing proposals

• Rezonings with permanently affordable units in underbuilt areas

This aims to prevent projects from stalling before formal review even begins.

Question 3: Expedited Land Use Review Procedure (ELURP)

Applies to smaller rezonings and affordable housing efforts:

• Bypasses City Council review

• Gives final authority to the City Planning Commission

It removes a key chokepoint where Council members often defer to local resistance.

Question 4: Affordable Housing Appeals Board

Creates a three-person override board (Mayor, Council Speaker, Borough President):

• Can overturn Council rejections when they block affordable housing aligned with citywide goals

• This introduces a safety valve to balance hyperlocal politics with broader housing needs.

Together, these Charter reforms compress the timeline. They don’t rewrite zoning laws but they reduce friction.

The Mamdani Administration’s Direction

Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani campaigned on a rent freeze and pro-tenant policies. His transition team includes both progressive policy voices and experienced government hands.

This suggests a dual mandate: increase affordability while improving process. It’s early, but the administration’s structure hints that permitting speed and housing volume may finally become a priority inside City Hall.

That said, the administration has not yet addressed the largest housing lever available: warehoused rent-stabilized units.

Albany's Turn: State-Level Fixes for the Front End

The Legislature is pursuing two key fixes:

• CEQR Modernization limits redundant environmental analysis and narrows the scope for delay.

• Pre-certification Timelines apply deadlines to the stage that has historically operated without one.

  
  

These proposals aren’t headline-grabbers, but they may unlock thousands of homes that currently can’t survive a two-year delay.

What 485-x Has Delivered So Far

The city’s new tax abatement program, 485-x, was billed as a reset to 421-a. As of mid-2025, it has produced:

• 118 buildings in the pipeline

• 2,600 total units, including 540 permanently affordable homes

Delivery has been slow. Developers are moving cautiously, and many projects haven’t broken ground. The program favors small and midsize projects in the outer boroughs. But its success depends on whether City Hall can make the underlying process faster.

The Hidden Supply: 50,000 Warehoused Units

Roughly 50,000 rent-stabilized apartments sit vacant across the city. Many need six-figure renovations, but current regulations prevent owners from raising rents enough to cover the cost—so the units sit empty.

We believe New York needs a vacancy reset mechanism. After a renovation, owners should be allowed to bring a unit to market rate—so long as it reenters rent stabilization for the next tenant. This targeted change would activate thousands of units without new construction.

So far, Mayor Mamdani has not offered a position on this issue.

Public Support vs. Local Resistance

Most New Yorkers support affordability. But when it comes to their own blocks, the numbers change.

• 61% support permanently affordable rentals.

• Only 35% support more public housing in their neighborhood.

• Just 26% favor increased housing development citywide.

Ballot measures passed, but deep NIMBY patterns remain. People want housing in theory - not next door.

Will This Affect Uptown?

Between 59th and 96th Street, little will change. These neighborhoods are already built out, often zoned R8B-R10, and dominated by co-ops, prewars, and protected brownstones.

Few new affordable projects are likely here. The impact of these reforms will be seen in the Bronx, Brooklyn, Queens, and through conversions—not new construction on the Upper East or West Sides.

The Roebling Report View

For the first time in decades, the city and state are realigning on timelines.

If the reforms hold - and if warehoused units are activated - New York may finally add housing at the pace it needs. It won’t be immediate but it’s finally plausible.

The Roebling Group helps buyers, owners, developers, and tenants navigate what comes next. If you want strategic insight or execution, let’s talk.

Best,

Corey Cohen

Founder, The Roebling Group