Jamie Dimon and Zohran Mamdani: Two Visions Competing for New York’s Future sent

Dear Friend,

Two competing visions are shaping New York’s future. On one side, the business community - anchored by JPMorgan Chase, major law firms, global tech firms, and a surge of AI startups - is doubling down on Manhattan. On the other, Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani proposes an aggressive affordability agenda: rent freezes, fare-free buses, and higher corporate and high-earner taxes. The tension between these forces will determine how the city grows, who it attracts, and how its real estate markets evolve.

JPMorgan’s Headquarters as Bellwether

JPMorgan Chase’s US$3–4 billion headquarters at 270 Park Avenue stands as an unmistakable signal of long-term corporate commitment. Beyond its architectural ambition, it represents a bet that Manhattan will remain the global center for high-earning finance and tech workers. The firm estimates it contributes roughly US$42 billion per year to New York’s economy and supports tens of thousands of additional jobs across the region.

Large Leases Underscore Confidence

Manhattan is in the midst of one of its strongest leasing years since 2019. Even as hybrid work persists, the city’s highest-value tenants continue to consolidate in premium locations:

• Over 7 million sq. ft. leased in Q3 2025 alone — well above historical norms.

• Nearly 23 million sq. ft. leased year-to-date, a massive rebound from 2024.

• Vacancy falling toward 22%, its lowest in years.

• Class A buildings leading the market, driven by companies upgrading space to attract talent.

  
  

The biggest deals of the year reflect continued corporate faith in New York:

• Jane Street — 1,000,000 sq. ft. at 250 Vesey Street

• Paul, Weiss — 850,000 sq. ft. at 1345 Sixth Avenue

• Deloitte — 807,000 sq. ft. at 70 Hudson Yards

• Simpson Thacher — 700,000 sq. ft. at 570 Fifth Avenue

These are generational moves that only happen when firms believe the city is central to their long-term strategy.

AI Companies Drive a New Wave of Demand

AI firms have become one of Manhattan’s most dynamic new tenant groups, reshaping demand across Midtown South and beyond.

Key trends from 2025:

• Over 486,000 sq. ft. leased by AI-focused companies in the first nine months — more than all of 2024, almost double 2023. Major expansions include:

  • OpenAI — 90,000 sq. ft. at the Puck Building

  • Salesforce — 71,000 sq. ft. at 3 Bryant Park

  • Sigma Computing — 64,000 sq. ft. at One Madison Avenue

    
    

• Dozens of smaller AI firms are signing sub–5,000 sq. ft. deals — short-term, high-capital, fast-growth teams.

  
  

• AI companies view in-person collaboration as essential to model development, iteration cycles, and engineering productivity. Their leasing behavior reflects that philosophy.

Corporate Expansion vs. Shifting Finance Jobs

Even as Manhattan sees record-setting office commitments, finance job growth is increasingly shifting to lower-cost metros. Recent data shows:

• Dallas–Fort Worth has added more than 60,000 finance and tech jobs in the last five years.

• Major banks and asset managers have moved thousands of positions out of New York.

• New York’s highest-value roles (front office, investment, legal, advisory) remain here - but mid-level and back-office growth is migrating south.

New York is winning the top of the talent pyramid while losing the middle.

Mamdani’s Vision: Rent Freezes, Free Transit, Higher Taxes

Mamdani’s policy agenda represents a radical reorientation of the city’s priorities:

• A rent freeze for rent-stabilized apartments

• Fare-free buses citywide

• Higher taxes on corporations and high-income residents

• A larger role for public ownership and city-run services

  
  

Supporters argue the city cannot continue its affordability trajectory without bold intervention.

Critics warn that freezing rents without addressing operating costs accelerates warehousing, and that tax hikes may push high earners and employers to consider exit options.

COPA: A Structural Shift to Multifamily Markets

A cornerstone of Mamdani’s housing agenda is the Community Opportunity to Purchase Act (COPA), which would dramatically reshape how multifamily buildings are sold.

COPA would require owners of 3+ unit buildings to:

• Provide advance notice before selling

• Allow qualified nonprofits a first opportunity to express interest

• Grant exclusive negotiation windows

• Allow nonprofits to match any third-party offer

With over 30 co-sponsors, COPA has a clear path to passage.

If enacted, COPA would slow down transaction timelines, complicate exit strategies, and gradually move a portion of the housing stock into community land trusts - reducing speculative churn while limiting market liquidity.

Two New Yorks, One Future

Manhattan’s office market - driven by law firms, banks, tech giants, and AI startups - tells a story of resilience, reinvestment, and continued gravitational pull for high-earning talent.

Mamdani’s agenda represents a bold attempt to re-center affordability, even at the risk of unsettling the city’s tax base and investment climate.

The city’s next chapter will be shaped by these two forces - the corporate engines powering New York’s growth and the political movements demanding a more equitable distribution of that prosperity.

Whether they converge or collide will determine the city’s trajectory over the next decade.

If You’re Navigating This Landscape…

Whether you’re a homeowner thinking about timing your sale, a tenant trying to understand how new regulations might change the rental market, or a business evaluating your long-term footprint in the city, these shifts will shape your options.

If you want help making sense of how these dynamics affect your buying, selling, or leasing decisions, I’m always here to talk through the data, the politics, and the bigger picture.

Best,

Corey Cohen

Founder, The Roebling Group