NYC Co-op or Suburban House? The 2030 Decision Framework
- Corey Cohen
- 4 days ago
- 2 min read
Updated: 3 days ago
For New Yorkers planning their next decade, the choice often comes down to two paths: the Manhattan co-op or the suburban house. Both options carry trade-offs but we’ve seen pricing tighten significantly over the previous decade.
Manhattan Co-op Prices:
Median 4BR co-op prices fell from $5.05M in 2015 to $3.7M by 2024, according to Miller Samuel data. This reflects a 26.7% nominal decline and a whopping 44% real decline (adjusted for inflation).
Manhattan co-ops are now trading around $1,192/sq ft while suburban houses in Greenwich and Sands Point command $700–$850/sq ft.
Suburban Appreciation:
Meanwhile, suburban enclaves have far outpaced Manhattan value growth. Medians:
Greenwich, CT: ~$1.875M in 2015 → ~$3.25M in 2025
Sands Point, NY: $2.2M in 2020 → $3.1M in 2025.
Why is this happening?
COVID: Pandemic-era migration to the suburbs reduced city demand.
Aging suburban Boomers are locked in with 3% mortgage rates and not selling.
Foreign-buyer activity: Manhattan demand softened in recent years but has recovered recently, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar.
For some clients seeking value while debating school options for their children the decision becomes more nuanced than it was five years ago.
Back to the Office and Residential Pricing Impact
The past several years emphasized remote and hybrid work. 2025 is seeing a marked reversal:
JPMorgan’s new HQ at 270 Park Avenue (2025) houses ~14,000 employees. The firm now requires most employees to be in the office five days a week.
BlackRock expanded 50K SF at 50 Hudson Yards in 2024.
KKR maintains Manhattan offices with recent lease renewals, and tech firms like Amazon signed major NYC leases in 2025, generally mandating several in-office days per week.
Return-to-Office Trends:
NYC office leasing hit 21.7M SF so far year, the strongest performance since 2019.
RTO levels have recovered to ~76% of pre-COVID norms, reinforcing the premium value of Manhattan residences near work.
Commutes, once discounted by hybrid flexibility, will again be a key variable - especially for executives expected in the office multiple days per week. By 2030, being 20 minutes from Midtown may again set a pricing premium, supporting co-op demand and urban living.
Positioning for the Future:
Value Trajectory: Manhattan co-ops have more upside given their relative affordability today compared to overheated suburbs. Additionally, an aversion to rent increases in the rent-stabilized market by the city government will put upward pressure on the free-market segment, supporting co-op values.
Lifestyle Fit: Proximity to work, private versus public school options, and cultural amenities will continue to influence choice.
Urban Revival: Office leasing momentum and new developments reshaping Midtown and Downtown are likely to increase demand for high-quality residential inventory.
For families looking ahead the next few years, I’m seeing relative co-op affordability when adjusted for inflation. Those who can make due with less space in New York City will have compelling options that balance work, commuting, and long-term value.
So whether your next move is a Manhattan co-op, a suburban enclave, or somewhere out of state, we help clients navigate every step. Reach out to explore your options and make a confident, informed move wherever life takes you.
Best,
Corey Cohen
Founder
The Roebling Group
646.939.7375
@mrcoreycohen
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